Enter an ordered range
The optimistic amount must be no higher than most likely, which must be no higher than pessimistic.
THREE-POINT MVP ESTIMATE
Optimistic vs Pessimistic Estimate Tool
Turn optimistic, most-likely, and pessimistic MVP cost assumptions into a weighted expected estimate, range, and uncertainty signal.
- Uses your inputs in a transparent calculation
- Instant result with practical next steps
- No signup required
Planning guidance only. Validate important decisions with customer evidence and your delivery team.
YOUR INPUTS
Build your result
Complete every field. The result updates only when you choose Calculate.
How it works
Calculate the PERT estimate
The formula is optimistic plus four times most likely plus pessimistic, divided by six.
Keep uncertainty visible
The result reports the full range, relative spread, weighted expectation, and contingency amount separately.
Continue learning: Why software estimates change after discovery · Estimate software with unclear requirements
Frequently asked questions
Why is most-likely weighted four times?
This is the standard three-point PERT expected-value formula. It centres the estimate without discarding the two boundary scenarios.
Is pessimistic the worst imaginable case?
No. It should be a credible high case for the stated scope and known risks, not an unlimited catastrophe scenario.
Does contingency replace the range?
No. Contingency is added to the weighted expectation while the optimistic and pessimistic inputs remain visible as uncertainty boundaries.
How We Compare
| Feature | MVPHub | Microsoft Excel | Google Sheets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guided workflow-specific inputs | Included | Limited | Limited |
| Input-based calculation | Included | Included | Included |
| Calculation method explained | Included | Limited | Limited |
| Focused next steps | Included | Limited | Limited |
Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets can implement PERT and larger probabilistic models. MVPHub provides a guided three-point calculation with order validation and a visible uncertainty signal.
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